The main French Parliamentary elections are next Sunday the 10th, but the first round for the constituencies for French citizens living abroad takes place this weekend. This includes the 1st constituency for French citizens abroad, covering the US and Canada. They were having a hard time finding volunteers to run the polling places here in the Bay Area, so I ended up signing up to help, which will be interesting. I’ve been an election worker four times for US elections, so it’ll be interesting to compare the procedures.

Background: In 2012, French MPs were elected representing 11 constituencies of French citizens living abroad for the first time. These constituencies were created by Sarkozy’s government because they expected to win most of the seats — expats tend to wealthier and vote for the right. But this backfired because the Socialists chose better candidates and won most of the seats. This time around, Macron did extremely well with French citizens abroad (more than 50% in the first round in most of the constituencies) and so expect to pick up a bunch of these seats.  

For the 1st constituency (US/Canada) the Socialist candidate Corinne Narassiguin won the seat in 2012, but the election was invalidated because she violated campaign finance laws, and the UMP/Republican candidate Frederic Lefebvre won the re-run in 2013. The first round vote in 2017 in this constituency was 51% Macron, 24% Fillon. 

Here are the main candidates in 2017:

Frederic Lefebvre (LR/center-right): The incumbent, had previously served as a suppleant (replacement) for an MP from the Paris area following the 2007 election. He lost in 2012 because he was a carpetbagger (the winning Socialist candidate actually lived in the US), but by the re-run in 2013 Hollande was unpopular and so Lefebvre won easily. However, he’s now in a very pro-Macron constituency and so has been trying to portray himself as pro-Macron. His election material has a picture of him with Macron on the back and he’s saying he’s ‘of the right but progressive.’ 

Roland Lescure (LREM - Macronist): The actual Macron candidate, he quit his job as a pension fund investor in Montreal to work for Macron’s campaign. Seems to very into Macronism and so would be a pretty loyal MP to Macron if he wins. Has a big picture of Macron on his poster to clearly convey that.

Clementine Langlois (France Insoumise - Melenchonist): She’s an entrepreneur from Ottawa. Has Melenchon in big on her poster. 

Yan Chantrel (Socialist Party): He lives in Montreal and is elected to the ‘assembly of french citizens abroad,’ an official body I didn’t realize existed. Looks to be more on the left/Hamon wing of the socialist party, judging by his list of endorsements, though unlike Lescure or Langlois, he doesn’t have a big picture of his presidential candidate — Hamon is probably more of a drag than a boost at this point. Has been sending out emails since last summer, earlier and more than any of the other candidates, but it’s probably not enough to save him.

Then there are 9 other candidates, including some who are trying to play the ‘we’re actually interested in local issues’ card, but I don’t think they’ll do very well. 

Prediction: Unlike the presidential election, the parliamentary elections aren’t a top-2. Instead, all candidates who get at least 12.5% of registered voters get to the second round. However, turnout in the US/Canada will be low and only two candidates will make the second round. Most likely it’ll be Lescure (LREM) and Lefebvre (LR), with Lescure winning in the second round as the real Macron candidate.